It doesn’t take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. – Bob Dylan

We underestimate the impact of technology and innovation on society. The current level of innovation and its subsequent rate of change are historically unparalleled and accelerating.

The impact of the printing press invented in the 15th century lasted for over 300 years, starting with the Reformation and ending with the French Revolution. The Industrial Revolution quickened the pace and completely changed society in less than 150 years ending with two world wars and the dissolution of colonialism and the Austrian and Turkish empires.

The Digital Revolution is turning our world upside-down and has taken less than 75 years. From nano-bots to CRISPR gene therapy; from driverless cars to workerless factories; from the Arab Spring to Donald Trump it affects almost every aspect of modern life. Over the next 35 years the next revolution will make our world completely unrecognisable.

A key factor in this revolution is disruptive innovation taking place in energy – sometimes called the Grand Transition. Energy has always been at the root of civilisation and there have been many energy transitions, but this one is global, unprecedented, requires changes to whole systems and will affect the survival of the planet.

It is bigger than energy alone with inter-dependencies across regions, countries, industry and governments. Sector coupling will require new types of collaboration, i.e., electric car manufacturers with battery storage and charging facilities or smart cities with efficient heating and cooling of buildings and smart meters. Solutions that address the water-food-energy nexus will be paramount.

In this revolution, national energy policy is no longer based on alliances with resource rich counties, in the way Franklin Roosevelt created an American alliance with Saudi Arabia. The incumbent energy companies are also changing; oil-rich United Arab Emirates are building the world’s largest solar facilities and the Japanese and Australians are investing in hydrogen-based energy.

Decentralised renewable and other efficient energy sources change everything. Will we become prosumers who create, store and trade our own supply of energy through local grids and unmediated blockchain technology?

The Chinese, who are the leaders in renewable energy, are heavily investing in their Belt and Road initiative; creating new energy capabilities and infrastructure along the old Silk Roads from Central Asia to the Middle East to Europe and extending to Africa. New alliances will be based on neighbouring countries importing and exporting energy to best suit their needs.

Decentralisation, digitalisation and decarbonisation are the key drivers of the energy transition. Innovation is not just about disruptive technology but includes innovation in new market design, policy and regulation.

Climate change has activated a new generation. Democracy as a system is at risk. Just look at Brexit, France’s Yellow Jackets or Brazil. We are moving away from the domination of the United States and their cultural hegemony.

The World Energy Council and their global members’ network are helping shape the energy future by facilitating and informing strategic dialogue and through utilisation of a free Energy Toolkit. Their Trilemma Index tool helps energy experts worldwide balance energy policy, including energy that is affordable and accessible, secure and resilient against cyber-crime and hazardous weather and environmentally sustainable for the prosperity of all.